From George Ure's daily report http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htm
"This is like watching one of those 'rooms full of ping pong balls on mouse traps that demonstrate how a chain-reaction works' except that this one happens like molasses. Seems like about one data point per quarter:
*Q2 08: Oil goes way up.
*Q3 08: Passenger travel falls
*Q4 08: Fall accelerates
*Q1 09: Airplane makers likely to cut production rates, lay off humans.
*Q2 09: Hotel/rental car consolidations/failures ought to make headlines
*Q3 09: Another round of airline consolidations
*Q4 09: More travel fall off....
And that's how a Depression looks."