Thursday, December 18, 2008

Slow Motion Cascading Effects

From George Ure's daily report

"This is like watching one of those 'rooms full of ping pong balls on mouse traps that demonstrate how a chain-reaction works' except that this one happens like molasses. Seems like about one data point per quarter:

*Q2 08: Oil goes way up.
*Q3 08: Passenger travel falls
*Q4 08: Fall accelerates
*Q1 09: Airplane makers likely to cut production rates, lay off humans.
*Q2 09: Hotel/rental car consolidations/failures ought to make headlines
*Q3 09: Another round of airline consolidations
*Q4 09: More travel fall off....

And that's how a Depression looks."